Brenda Vingiello, Sand Hill’s Chief Investment Officer, joined Squawk Box to discuss her thoughts on the latest market trends and market outlook for 2025. This
Reinvesting Cash on the Sidelines
Published Date : July 20, 2023
July 20, 2023
It is human nature to want to avoid loss and instead seek refuge in something that feels safe. After the very pronounced and painful market declines of last year, a new wave of participant risk aversion flooded markets as investors piled a record amount into money market funds, where $5.4 trillion of it remains as of early July. The fresh appeal, due to steep Fed rate increases in 2022, of about 5% return on the typical current risk-free cash asset is something that investors have not seen in decades, and it is certainly a welcome change for anyone with a short-term time horizon. However, for long-term investors who need equity-like returns to achieve future goals, holding excess cash today still poses risks.
The following three questions can help reveal some of the biggest risks associated with excess cash:
What’s the real return on cash? The real return on cash (the stated yield minus inflation) is currently around 1% based on CPI data released in June, and it has actually averaged 0.9% over the past 40 years; but it dipped to a negative real rate of 1.2% over the past 20 years, and negative 1.6% over the past 10 years. In essence, inflation makes it very difficult for cash to maintain its purchasing power over time. For investors focused on wealth accumulation or for those who need to sustain a withdrawal rate, nominal cash returns are still simply too low.
What’s my reinvestment risk? Reinvestment risk is the possibility that interest rates will decline, and hence future funds will have to be reinvested at lower rates. Although we may get one or two more rate hikes this year, as of June, the Fed is forecasting that interest rates will decline to 2.5% in three years. One way to mitigate reinvestment risk is to match the investment’s maturity with your time horizon. For bond investors who went to cash during last year’s difficult period, historically, at this point in the cycle, investing cash back into bonds has provided a meaningful return advantage.
What’s my opportunity cost? This is always easier to evaluate in hindsight and over longer periods of time. Over shorter periods, it usually involves the risky business of market timing. While cash did outperform both stocks and bonds in 2022, this result is the exception, not the norm. In fact, over the past 40 years, cash has only outperformed both stocks and bonds five times and it has never done so over a rolling 2-year period.
One of the biggest pitfalls with timing a market re-entry from cash is waiting too long to develop a plan. This often happens because the best time to invest is usually when things feel the worst, but when things feel the worst, investors are least likely to act. This year, investors have faced regional bank failures, debt ceiling concerns, more rate hikes, persistent inflation, and constant chatter about a recession on the horizon. And despite these worrisome headlines, the equity market (S&P 500) went on to rally by over 16% during the first half of this year.
I like the quote by Peter Lynch, “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.” While the desire to hold cash to avoid a short-term market correction is understandable, the trouble is that in due course it can create more problems than it solves. Cash is often referred to as a “risk-free” asset (in that the nominal value will not decline); however, there are other risks associated with holding too much cash—risks that are still relevant today, even in a world where cash-equivalent money market funds yield 5%.
Articles and Commentary
Information provided in written articles are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. There is a risk of loss from investments in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. The information contained herein reflects Sand Hill Global Advisors' (“SHGA”) views as of the date of publication. Such views are subject to change at any time without notice due to changes in market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. SHGA does not provide tax or legal advice. To the extent that any material herein concerns tax or legal matters, such information is not intended to be solely relied upon nor used for the purpose of making tax and/or legal decisions without first seeking independent advice from a tax and/or legal professional. SHGA has obtained the information provided herein from various third party sources believed to be reliable but such information is not guaranteed. Certain links in this site connect to other websites maintained by third parties over whom SHGA has no control. SHGA makes no representations as to the accuracy or any other aspect of information contained in other Web Sites. Any forward looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results are expected to vary from any such statements or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision. SHGA is not responsible for the consequences of any decisions or actions taken as a result of information provided in this presentation and does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of SHGA.
Video Presentations
All video presentations discuss certain investment products and/or securities and are being provided for informational purposes only, and should not be considered, and is not, investment, financial planning, tax or legal advice; nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investing in securities involves varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or suitable for a particular client’s financial situation or risk tolerance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Individual performance results will vary. The opinions expressed in the video reflect Sand Hill Global Advisor’s (“SHGA”) or Brenda Vingiello’s (as applicable) views as of the date of the video. Such views are subject to change at any point without notice. Any comments, opinions, or recommendations made by any host or other guest not affiliated with SHGA in this video do not necessarily reflect the views of SHGA, and non-SHGA persons appearing in this video do not fall under the supervisory purview of SHGA. You should not treat any opinion expressed by SHGA or Ms. Vingiello as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of general opinion. Nothing presented herein is or is intended to constitute investment advice, and no investment decision should be made based solely on any information provided on this video. There is a risk of loss from an investment in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. Neither SHGA nor Ms. Vingiello guarantees any specific outcome or profit. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts contained in the video are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any such statements or forecasts. SHGA or one of its employees may have a position in the securities discussed and may purchase or sell such securities from time to time. Some of the information in this video has been obtained from third party sources. While SHGA believes such third-party information is reliable, SHGA does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness or completeness. SHGA encourages you to consult with a professional financial advisor prior to making any investment decision.
Recent Posts
