Since 1982, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has held an annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This event, typically in late August, is closely watched by the markets in search of guidance about future changes in interest rate policy. Given the Fed’s recent track record of raising rates slowly, but lowering … Continued
Investors have had a lot to be excited about thus far in 2017. With stocks reaching new all-time highs and longer-term interest rates trending lower, every asset class, with the exception of commodities, has delivered a positive return. However, two important markets – the U.S. stock market and the U.S. bond market – have begun … Continued
As we reflect on the last eight years, various stages of the economic and market recovery have unfolded like chapters in a book. Many parts have told a predictable tale and, at various times, we have been left wondering if there would be an unpredictable twist or a surprise ending. While the story may be … Continued
Whether it’s the EU, ECB, FED, NAFTA, TPP, WTO, IMF, QE, ZIRP or now NIRP … the whole alphabet soup of established economic policy and international free trade seems to have come under intense scrutiny this year. While our own domestic election year politicking certainly plays an inflammatory role, we are struck by the far-reaching … Continued
A growing topic of conversation amongst many investors is how to properly think about their investment performance within context of the current environment of historically low interest rates and persistently low inflation. To answer that question, it is helpful to look back at the last forty years of history and incorporate that period’s steady decline … Continued
In Wall Street’s eyes, there are few things more troubling than uncertainty, which has been in no short supply during this current economic cycle. The severity of the recession, the slow recovery, atypical reaction of some asset classes and the level and degree of central bank intervention have all contributed to elevated concerns. One of … Continued
The markets are off to a rough start this year, culminating last week with a capitulation-like sell-off that left the S&P 500 Index down 10% since January 1st. The pull-back was triggered by many of the same worries that we experienced last fall: China’s slowing growth and their overvalued currency, the Federal Reserve’s decision to … Continued
While breaking every established financial record in the movie industry, the release of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” also brought into clear focus the bifurcated state of the movie industry. Given changes in our collective viewing preferences for entertainment, as well as changing economic forces, studios have gravitated towards the safety and security of producing … Continued
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” – Mike Tyson If the markets were a boxing match, then last quarter’s pummeling would have been met with calls for the referee to intervene. Volatile commodity prices, a potential Greek default, uncertainty around tighter U.S. monetary policy, pharmaceutical and biotechnology pricing worries, geopolitical … Continued
Fears of a “great rotation” out of fixed income have gripped investors for the past few years as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. For anyone who has studied the fixed income market, one of the first things you learn is the inverse relationship … Continued